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Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-07T16:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16214/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-09T21:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2020-12-07T20:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 900 km/s.
Longitude (deg): 5 W
Latitude (deg): 17 S
Half-angular width (deg): 47 deg 

Notes: A good fit was possible with NOAA CAT tool on Stereo A COR2 and SOHO Lasco C2/C3. The fit was made along the sun-earth line - a speed of 900 km/s was determined, varying between 820 and 1000 km/s - the CME was faster to the south. Enlil has come back with an arrival time of Wednesday evening, around 2100Z. It is possible that the background solar wind fields may be faster than the model's winds, which may bring the arrival time forwards by a few hours. Expected G1/G2 with 70% confidence (20% for G3).
Space weather advisor: MOSWOC team

Lead Time: 38.98 hour(s)
Difference: 4.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2020-12-08T10:30Z

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